As we come to the end of the year 2019, one thing can be said for sure. It was an intriguing year with several ups and downs and an eventual end to the year near all time highs. It has also been the most unloved all time high with most people holding small and mid […]
Read MoreD The stock markets reaction subsequent to the Monetary Policy Committee rate decision last Friday indicated disappointment with the decision to cut by “Just 25 basis points”. Market expectations had started running high after the RBI Governor just a few days back had indicated strong support for the economy. However in my view 25 basis […]
Read MoreI The second term of Narendra Modi started with great hopes which give way to despair as stock market participants and analysts saw various moves of the government which included cash giveaways, higher taxes on the rich, continued higher surcharges on capital gains etc combined with a lack of any structural moves to revive a […]
Read MoreThe Budget has come and gone and a yearly ritual which should normally be a non event is usually made into a big event where forecasts are made into the future based on what a particular speech says. The economy and stock markets normally do not work that way. I will be brief in my […]
Read MoreAfter a below par 2018 which was driven by volatility and sell off in Mid and Small Cap stocks which got exaggerated as the ILFS issue blew up and was followed by DHFL, ADAG Group, Pledge share issues etc. This negative sentiments gained further steam with liquidity issues, high interest rates and then the elections […]
Read MoreInvesting in turnaround stocks is most difficult but can also yield strong returns to investors who are willing to take the risk. The risk obviously being that the turnaround might not take place at all and could get stalled and in that case, there could be a risk of capital loss. Most people think of […]
Read MoreWhat drives currency movements is one of the most misunderstood concepts in the financial markets. Most economists and analysts are still fixated on the interest rate differential theory which has outlived its utility in most situations except in crisis situations where Central Banks increase rates by substantial magnitudes inorder to support their currency. Back around […]
Read MoreThe year 2019 started off exactly I thought it should in the global context with a bounce back in the US Markets and a revival of Emerging Markets driven by low valuations and increasingly dovish outlook from most central banks. However India has underperformed significantly during this period with the markets absolutely flat YTD whereas […]
Read More2019 A YEAR OF DICHOTOMIES As I think about the year 2019 ( I also wonder why all forecasts are made at the end of December only) there are a large number of moving parts that will influence the markets. Global Central bank positioning is varied as compared to normal tightening and loosening cycles which […]
Read MoreMARKET OUTLOOK POST CORRECTION The markets have gone through a significant churn over the last few months driven by various factors which started from the general overvaluation in Mid and Small Caps to rising concerns on rising crude oil prices & inflation, Fed rate hike fears, Trade Wars, INR fall and then the eventual crash […]
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